Loading ...Oh Hey, Elections!
May 6th, 2008 by SteveTwo today, North Carolina and Indiana. Most polls close in IN at 6, some close at 7, and NC closes at 7:30. Let the fun begin. My prediction is an even delegate split.
Oh, Obama won Guam by 7 votes on Saturday, and the two split the delegates 2-2.
UPDATE [6:20] - A few votes trickling in from parts of IN. Nothing much.
6:45 - Hah! CNN promo sez “the night that could change it all”. But it won’t. We know that nothing much will change. Obama maintains 130+ pledged delegate lead, but Clinton’s not officially eliminated! On to West Virginia next week! Meh, I’ll be here to keep updating though. I’m also studying for a final tomorrow morning, so updates may be sluggish.
7:00 - Polls are closed! “Too early to call” sez Wolf Blitzer’s Beard. So less than a 10 point win for either, approximately. I predicted 8 point Clinton win on another site. We’ll see.
7:05 - CNN exit poll sez 4 point Clinton win. This makes my 8 point prediction look brilliant [exit polls tend to overstate Obama’s support by 3-7 points].
7:30 - Polls are closed in NC! CNN sez… Obama wins! Interesting… 12 point Obama win?
8:45 - Ok, couldn’t get to my site. Dunno what that was about. Anyway… Clinton’s lead in IN is 8 points, with major Obama strongholds not in yet. CBS called it for her, but CNN hasn’t; waiting a bit to see what the vote in those Obama counties do. I’m sticking by my original prediction: +8 Clinton. In NC, Obama’s margin is +28 but it’s way early, only 15% is in. Not sure what it’ll be, though my original guess earlier today was +8 Obama. The NC exit polls predict a +13 Obama win. We’ll see.
9:00 - +6 Clinton in IN (67% in), +24 Obama in NC (24% in). Indiana might be pretty close… might the exit polls be right?!?
9:25 - Little change, 36% in from NC, Obama +20.
9:45 - Obama up 14, 53% in, in NC. Clinton up 4 in IN, 75% in. Still waiting on Lake and Laporte counties, Obama strongholds.
11:05 - Same margin in NC, 92% in; same in IN, with 86% in. Good night for the Obama fans.
12:05 - 2 points in IN, 20k votes, 92% in. NC is basically done, Clinton loses there by 14. Big, big night for Obama… can he pull the surprise upset??
1:30 - No he can’t. Clinton by 2 in IN, Obama by 14 in NC. I was off by 6 in both. This race is pretty much over. See you next week for West Virginia anyway. Clinton will withdraw either then or, more likely, after a loss in Oregon on the 20th.